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Cotton Association lowers 2021-22 crop estimate to 323.63 lakh bales 

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Agri Business

Crop in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana expected to drop 

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised downward the crop estimate for the year 2021-22 to 323.63 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) from the earlier estimates of 335.13 lakh bales.

The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) during its meeting on Friday (May 13) estimated reduction in cotton output in Gujarat (-5 lakh bales), Maharashtra (-5), Telangana (-2) and Madhya Pradesh (-1) and Karnataka (-0.5).

The estimates include two lakh bales increase in the crop estimate for Tamil Nadu, following a summer crop which will arrive in June, July and August and it also includes the new crop which will arrive in August and September.

Higher prices

The CAI’s reduction in cotton crop comes at a time, when the cotton prices are ruling at record high levels. At APMCs in Gujarat, cotton prices rule above ₹10,000 per quintal at most places, whereas the minimum support price (MSP) decided by the government is at ₹6,025 for long staple and ₹5,726 for medium staple variety. In Telangana’s Warngal mandi, cotton quoted at ₹11,000 per quintal with arrivals of 105 tonnes on May 13.

According to CAI, the total cotton supply during October 2021 to April 2022 is estimated at 358.49 lakh bales, which includes arrivals of 277.49 lakh bales, imports of 6 lakh bales and the opening stock of 75 lakh bales at the beginning of the season in October 2021.

CAI has pegged the consumption at 200 lakh bales including export shipments of 36 lakh bales upto April 30, 2022. The stocks at the end of April 2022 is estimated at 122.49 lakh bales that includes 78 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 44.49 lakh bales with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others.

Cotton balance sheet

After the revised cotton crop numbers, the estimated total cotton supply by the end of the cotton season on September 30, 2022 is estimated at 413.63 lakh bales, lower by 11.50 lakh bales compared with 425.13 lakh bales estimated earlier.

Total cotton imports for the season is seen flat at 15 lakh bales, but higher than the previous year’s import estimates of 10 lakh bales.

The exports for the season is estimated at 40 lakh bales, much less than 78 lakh bales estimated for the previous year.

The carry-over stock is now estimated at 53.63 lakh bales against 75 lakh bales of last year’s estimate.

The domestic consumption is estimated at 320 lakh bales, which was estimated at 335 lakh bales for the last year.

Published on May 14, 2022

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