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‘Asani’ weakens, may prowl AP, Odisha coasts till evening

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La Nina sustains in the Pacific; strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole predicted

Severe cyclone Asani has weakened into a minimal cyclone this (Wednesday) morning and was located within earshot of the Machilipatnam coast of Andhra Pradesh, from where it would head toward North-North-East along Narsapur, Yanam, Kakinada, and Visakhapatnam coasts till the evening.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the cyclone may emerge into the West-Central Bay of Bengal off the North Andhra Pradesh coast and weaken into a depression by Thursday morning. A few international models have indicated that Asani may make a landfall over the Andhra Pradesh coast during the process.

Rain for Coastal AP, Odisha

Light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places while it will be extremely heavy falls at isolated places today (Wednesday). It would be heavy over South Coastal Odisha.

Outlook for Thursday (tomorrow) is that light to moderate rainfall may lash many places of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Odisha and West Bengal. Most of East India and the South Peninsula have made rain gains from ‘Asani’ though Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Jharkhand, Tripura and Mizoram are still in deficit.

A heatwave may re-emerge over North-West India (in white and ash colours) even as erstwhile severe cyclone Asani has cooled down the East Coast and the South Peninsula.

A heatwave may re-emerge over North-West India (in white and ash colours) even as erstwhile severe cyclone Asani has cooled down the East Coast and the South Peninsula.

La Nina, negative IOD

Australian and Japanese agencies have indicated that La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific have sustained or strengthened a bit, and expect these conditions to sustain into June-August (winter in the southern hemisphere).

The Application Laboratory of the Japanese national forecaster Jamstec is the more confident among the two, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology cited only one of the models it surveyed as suggesting that the La Nina may last until August.

A La Nina (cooler to the East while warmer to the West of the equatorial Pacific) has complemented a concurrent India monsoon for the most part, unlike alter ego El Nino, which has heralded poor monsoon or drought, though with honourable exceptions.

Australia, Indonesia to benefit

What the Indian monsoon may have to confront with instead is the threat of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that mimics the El Nino-La Nina tango in the Indian Ocean. A negative IOD warms up the eastern basin of the ocean relative to the West, and apportions a part of the monsoon flows to itself.

The immediate beneficiary in terms of the heavy rainfall would be Indonesia and Australia, which lie within the immediate vicinity to the East of the Indian Ocean basin. The Australian Bureau notes that all climate models suggest a negative IOD may develop, despite the low forecast accuracy at this time of the year.

Published on May 11, 2022

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