Perfect conditions predicted for the two feature meetings at Sandown and Newcastle today so we can bet with confidence into the meetings.
That said there are only a limited number of races that appeal, particular at Newcastle which has attracted very competitive fields across the nine-race card.
Race 3 Kevin Heffernan Stakes
Kemalpasa is racing in career best form culminating in a win in the Linlithgow Stakes. He beat Order Of Command by a length in a race they both dominated from on speed.
Blazejowski was first-up that day and finished a further two lengths away in fifth. For me I cannot see any reason either of the beaten horses that day would be able to turn the tables in this race, so it surprises me they are so close in the betting.
Perhaps the doubt for some is the stretch out to 1300m however Kemalpasa has rated well in winning twice at 1250m and as such I do not believe the extra 100m to be an issue. At $2.65 this morning against my rating of $2 he represents good value.
Race 6 Sandown Guineas
Not a race I am going to bet into but one of the more interesting races on the card. Aysar looks unbeatable on his efforts in the Caulfield Guineas and Carbine Club Stakes finishing second to Ole Kirk and Crosshaven respectively.
With no subjectivity I could have the horse as short as $1.40 however at a best price of $1.65 this morning and with some query on how high his nearest rival Sweet Reply may be able to stretch in her rating after her complete forgive run last start, I am not going to get involved.
Race 7 Sandown Cup
Miami Bound comes out of the Melbourne Cup to this race. Like the Zipping Classic you make a profit backing all Cup horses presenting for this race. Since the 2012 Cup nine horses have backed up in six editions. They have won two of the six with another five placed efforts, they ran the trifecta in 2015. Backing all would result in a POT of 43%.
Miami Bound was fair in the Cup when asked to come from a long way back in a race we know was dominated from on-speed.
She rated very strongly in the Moonee Valley Cup two starts ago when she beat Carif and Etah James easily. Carif was unlucky in the Hotham but it would be difficult to see him turning that result around. Miami Bound also finished with a two length superiority over Etah James in the Cup.
Sin To Win races consistently and ran to an equal career peak rating last start, however I have him rated $5.50 to Miami Bound at $3 so the fact that Sin To Win is favourite in the race is very surprising to me.
I wrote about this race yesterday and noted in that preview to back Missile Mantra at the $4 on offer, which is still available today. The scratching’s have weakened the expected tempo of the race however I am still keen on the chances of the Snowden-trained mare.
Tricky Gal is the other horse I am interested in and expect that we will get a marginally better price than the current $4.65 she is currently trading at. I have the pair around 70% of the probability and they can be backed at a sum percentage of 47% currently, and likely better if we shop well. That will be my approach to the race.
Other than betting into the Hunter as discussed yesterday I have not been able to find any great value in the Newcastle meeting. Closest I have come is in Race 2 where I have some value in King’s Trust and Northern Knight, both of which are accentuated by very positive jockey changes.
SATURDAY LINE BETS (100 units)
Sandown Race 3 No.2 – Kemelpasa (Rated $2 – Available price $2.65) – 20 units
Sandown Race 7 No.3 – Miami Bound ($3 – $4.55) – 15 units
Sandown Race 8 No.1 – Avilius ($2.75 – $3.90) – 25 units
Sandown Race 10 No.4 – Missile Mantra ($2.75 – $4) – 25 units
Sandown Race 10 No.7 – Tricky Gal ($4.50 – $5) – 8 units
Newcastle Race 7 No.15 – Asiago ($11 – $17) – 7 units