Boris Johnson has rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s name for a brand unusual referendum on independence in 2020 – however the Scottish first minister says this “is no longer going to stand”.
The SNP’s purpose is for Scotland to head away the UK and rejoin the EU as an self ample member pronounce.
So how is Ms Sturgeon at risk of answer?
Why is Scottish independence help in the highlight?
Scotland held an independence referendum in September 2014, with the No marketing campaign a hit 55% of the votes.
But then, in 2016, Brexit came about. Voters in Scotland backed Remain by 62% – but these at some level of the UK as a complete voted Depart by 52%.
The SNP noticed this as a “topic materials change in circumstances” which would define a second independence ballot, because Scotland faced being taken out of the EU “in opposition to its will”.
And the occasion has since performed strongly in elections. It won 48 of the 59 seats north of the border in final month’s overall election, while campaigning to “put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands”.
After 59 of 59 seats
Scottish National Celebration
, +13 seats when when compared with 2017
, -7 seats when when compared with 2017
, +0 seats when when compared with 2017
, -6 seats when when compared with 2017
Does Scotland just like the energy to protect a referendum?
There has prolonged been upright debate over whether the Scottish Parliament, in desire to MPs at Westminster, might maybe perchance also wander the guidelines wished for a brand unusual vote on independence to be held – however the matter has never been tested in court docket.
Despite all the pieces, Ms Sturgeon desires the UK authorities to agree a transfer of powers allowing a referendum to be held, as came about in 2014.
Ms Sturgeon, the SNP chief, says this would accomplish certain the referendum end result used to be viewed as being entirely upright and kindly, significantly by the EU.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson has flatly rejected her put a query to, arguing that the 2014 pollused to be a “once in a period” occasion.
What’s going to Nicola Sturgeon like now?
The first minister says Mr Johnson’s build apart is unsustainable, and that his refusals will merely accomplish bigger strengthen for independence.
If these political arguments like no longer inch Mr Johnson, the significant minister has no longer ruled out taking him to court docket. Nonetheless this would be a worldly and potentially prolonged project, and constitutional students like warned that “there are no upright short cuts” spherical the political battlefield.
One element Ms Sturgeon has ruled out is an unauthorised vote. She says the instance of Catalonia proves this “does no longer end result in independence”.
Maybe the clearest risk delivery to her might maybe perchance also be to target a terribly immense take in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2021, on an explicit platform of irritating a referendum – however the SNP argues that it has won several electoral mandates already.
Would Scots vote for independence?
That is the immense quiz – despite all the pieces Nicola Sturgeon would no longer unbiased real desire to protect a referendum, she desires to take one.
Polling data restful by What Scotland Thinks suggests an accomplish bigger in strengthen for independence – but it in overall stays unbiased real short of a majority.
Other than “don’t is aware of”, the moderate of polls this yr has been 51% No to 49% Sure. The moderate for 2018 used to be 55% to 45% – the equal as the 2014 referendum.
The SNP hopes that a mix of Brexit and hostility within Scotland to Mr Johnson’s refusals will delivery to push the dial extra in its direction.
Would an self ample Scotland dwell in the EU?
In follow, Scotland would no longer change into self ample the day after a Sure vote – there would ought to silent be a length of transition.
In 2014, the official-independence side acknowledged it might perchance maybe perchance take 18 months to location up an self ample Scottish pronounce.
Despite the indisputable truth that a referendum used to be held the next day to come, the transition would as a consequence of this truth urge beyond the discontinue of 2020 – when the UK is as a consequence of complete its exit from the EU.
This means Scotland would wander away the EU with the comfort of the UK, and would should apply to be part of again.
Scottish ministers accept they’d prefer to wade thru an “accession project” for EU membership, but desire to begin this “as rapidly as conceivable”.
What would it take for Scotland to rejoin the EU?
Scotland would prefer to meet the equal accession criteria as any pronounce looking out for to be part of the EU, though it might perchance maybe perchance just like the tremendous thing about having unbiased no longer too prolonged ago been a member.
While many of Scotland’s guidelines and regulations already match EU standards, the entry solutions throw up a complete sequence of questions about things love currency, deficit ranges and borders.
Ms Sturgeon has been pressed on many of these matters already, arguing that Scotland might maybe perchance also in the starting up proceed to make consume of the pound and would no longer should be part of the euro. She says the country’s monetary build apart might maybe perchance be brought within EU solutions by growing the economic system.
Nonetheless, her private occasion’s prospectus for independence suggests this might maybe perchance also take several years, whereas she desires to rejoin the EU as hasty as conceivable.
The first minister also desires to protect a long way off from a onerous border between Scotland and England.
She has acknowledged answers about this and a complete fluctuate of different questions shall be location out intimately earlier to any vote.