Almost the entire West Coast has been brought under a fresh monsoon burst as the Bay of Bengal prepares to get into the act yet again, likely culminating in formation of the next low-pressure area. The monsoon westerlies from the Arabian Sea entering the Bay have already turned monsoon easterlies to complete the circulation along or off the Odisha-Bengal coasts.
BRINGS MORE RAIN
In the process, they have brought rain not just along the flood-hit areas of Kerala and Karnataka, but also the adjoining interior peninsula, especially Telangana and Vidarbha, and the rest of East India. The monsoon easterlies from the Bay are also interacting with the westerlies from North-East Arabian Sea (Gujarat side) and setting up heavy rain over many parts of North-West India.
Punjab, Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh are witnessing rain as are adjoining Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Bengal. But the heaviest rain is happening in the North-West.
A three-day outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said almost the same scenario would prevail though with regional variations.
Rains may not be pronounced over most of Rajasthan and Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, North-West Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
While the ghat areas from Mumbai to Thiruvananthapuram would continue to remain under focus, the European Centre has marked out certain other places elsewhere heavy rain during this period.
These are Dhamtari and Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh), Rourkela (Odisha), Singrauli (Madhya Pradesh), Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh); Dehradun (Uttarakhand); and Dharamsala (Himachal Pradesh).
Meanwhile, global models are of the view that the Indian monsoon stands to yet again receive a ‘booster dose’ from building activity in the South China Sea/West Pacific.
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert in the South China Sea off Hong Kong. Two named tropical storms are roaming elsewhere in the vicinity.
Of these, tropical storms ‘Yagi’ (located north-east of Taipei) and ‘Leepi’ (located over deep Central Pacific but likely tracking to the South of Japan) are suitably aligned to send in ‘pulses’ into the Bay.
They are mostly taking a typical west-north-west route, which is what is just needed to direct the storm pulses across South-East Asia into the Bay.
The IMD wind field projections seem to factor in this possibility while signalling to the possibility of even more ‘low’s getting generates one after the other into next week.